TheInvestors.blog is not investment advice. Please read the disclaimer here.

Post updated on 3 Aug 26 to include data of Man Group, Aberdeen & Schroders which was not available on the date of original publication.

London-Listed asset managers mostly enjoyed solid AUM growth in Q2 of 2026, buoyed by strong investment returns.

The standout performance of Polar Capital was driven mostly by Technology strategies, and these were not just index-driven gains. It’s largest fund, the Global Technology Fund, returned +60% in the 3m to 30 Jun 26 compared to +33% for its benchmark Dow Jones Global Technology Index (12m: +132% v. +51%). And its fast-growing AI fund which targets opportunities from AI adoption across sectors with 55% invested outside of the IT sector, returned +45% in the 3m to 30 Jun 26 versus the +14% of its benchmark, the MSCI ACWI Index (12m: +99% v. 28%).

Across the sector, the net flow picture is far more varied however, with only three of the above asset managers (Polar, Man Group and Ashmore) recording positive net flows in Q2 (far right column below). But the changes in recent net flow trends gives a more interesting insight than the absolute numbers of Q2 alone.

And in quite a few cases, those flow trends seem to be filtering into recent share price moves. The chart below starts on 1 Apr 26 so the first few weeks of the chart will include the release of Q1 AUM updates. The last few weeks of the chart will include Q2 updates.

• Polar (Q2 AUM update 9 Jul): It’s safe to say that during this period, Polar is a special case. As I recently wrote, its exceptional performance over the last few quarters (in terms of investment returns and net flows) has resulted in a step-change in scale, and I think investors are still getting their heads around the implications of that. Even though the share price has had a strong run, a forward PE ratio of around 9 is hardly hugely demanding. The share price is however clearly influenced by the ‘AI trade’ - an example being the sharp selloff in late-July.

• Aberdeen (H1 results 29 Jul): A bit of a selloff with H1 results indicates some disappointment with progress, but the move was not hugely significant.

• Man Group (H1 results 28 Jul): Net flows have been pretty solid for a while now so there seems to be solid demand for Man’s strategies. The share price has been on a strong run since Sep 25. H1 results also showed a bounce in performance fees. Strong initial share price reaction reaction to results but the bounce faded pretty quickly.

• Liontrust (Q2 AUM update 22 Jul): Another strong recent share price run, but this is a recovery play. After a horrific few years of heavy outflows, and a massive share price fall since early-2022, net outflows seem to be easing. The share price has seen a nice uptick but that’s from a very low base. If flows turn positive and mostly stay there, there could be quite a bit further to run.

• CLIG - City of London Investment Group (trading update 23 Jul): A decent share price run along with solid growth in AUM, but growth has been driven by investment returns (CLIG has an EM bias), with net flows persistently negative for a while now (although net outflows have slowed). I suspect we need to see a return to positive net flows before any further significant share price re-rating.

• Jupiter (H1 results 23 Jul): I’ve been bullish about Jupiter over the last couple of years. I think Matthew Beesley has done a great turnaround job. But recent AUM performance has been a bit disappointing, with poor investment performance in Q1 and flows suddenly dropping into negative territory in the most recent quarter. The share price has taken a knock since the 23 Jul H1 results release. It might be a blip. We’ll have to wait and see. I’ll be updating and publishing my revised valuation soon (previous commentary below). Be sure to subscribe to receive the update.

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• Ashmore (AUM update 14 Jul): Up and down as EM comes in and out of favour with seemingly shorter and shorter cycles as the Middle-East conflict ebbs and flows. But encouragingly strong net flows in two of the last four quarters. Ashmore’s future fortunes are hard to call as it does depend on EM sentiment, but it has a highly specialist, differentiated offering, and a very strong balance sheet. This one requires a deep-dive valuation which I’ll be doing soon.

• Ninety One (AUM update 17 Jul): Also has an EM bias although not to the same degree as Ashmore. Its recent quarterly AUM update doesn’t split investment returns and net flows but 7.1% quarterly AUM growth suggests that flows were probably slightly negative, with the share price ticking downwards after that update. This one certainly has growth potential, although shareholders seem to be in a ‘wait and see’ position. But most encouragingly, there has been tons of insider buying in recent years.

• Impax (AUM update 10 Jul): A wild few months. Shares fell 25% after its Q1 AUM update which showed heavier outflows than forecast and then jumped 21% on the Q2 AUM update which showed outflows slowing (outside of the Impax Environmental Markets exit tender offer). Once flows settle, I still reckon Impax could recover significantly. It’s a highly specialist, quality outfit. My latest research note here.

• Premier Miton (AUM update 16 Jul): No let up in the bad news yet with heavy outflows continuing. It’s cutting costs to minimise the impact of AUM falls, but it just has to get back to positive flows to re-build some scale. Not much else matters.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder in a number of the companies mentioned in this publication, and covered Impax Asset Management, Polar Capital, and Mercia Asset Management, as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on these companies by clicking on each. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

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Polar Capital has released its results from FY26 (to 31 March 2026) and provided an update on Q1 of FY27. Sometimes a chart really does say it all.

AUM: FY26 and (most of) Q1-FY27

My full Equity Development research note covering these latest results, with updated forecasts and valuation is now freely available: Read the full research note here.

Here’s a summary:

With Polar Capital’s April AUM update, we knew it had delivered exceptional AUM growth in FY26 (to 31 Mar 26). AUM was up £9.2bn y-o-y to £30.6bn (+43%) and average AUM up 14%. So impressive financial results are no surprise. FY26 revenue was up 19% to £264m, with core operating profit +11% to £62.8m. Performance fee profits rose 99% to £16.1m, with PBT +49% to £76.9m. The FY dividend is 46p (yield 5%). Net cash stands at £151m with no borrowings.

But today’s announcement also highlights that AUM has jumped again in Q1 of FY27, reaching £44.7bn on 19 Jun 26, +46% in under three months. With such a big AUM move so early in FY27, and assuming no major market pullback, Polar Capital looks set to deliver another strong year in FY27. Forecasts are upgraded substantially

Recent AUM moves are not just market-driven. Polar’s investment teams are anything but index huggers. For example, its largest fund, the Global Technology Fund, returned +152% in the 12m to 31 May 26, compared to +64% for its benchmark Dow Jones Global Technology Index. Its largest Healthcare fund, the Biotechnology Fund, returned +67% versus +48% of the NASDAQ Biotechnology Net Total Return Index.

These are also not ‘flash-in-the-pan’ gains. Polar’s largest funds and broader portfolio have an outstanding track record over multiple time horizons compared to benchmarks and compared to peers.

Read the full research note here.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder of Polar Capital and covers Polar as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on Polar here. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

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In the London-listed wealth management sector, there are two significant share price stories so far in 2026: AJ Bell (+41%) and Aberdeen (+25%).

It’s not always the case that share prices correlate with fundamentals in the short term, but in Q1, they gave a pretty good steer.

Net flows are one of the most important metrics in wealth management, and you can see how strong these were for AJ Bell D2C and Aberdeen’s interactive investor in the chart below (Tatton and PensionBee had unique situations in Q1 which are discussed in more detail after the chart).

Two things to bear in mind in the company discussions below. 1) Q1 is usually a strong quarter for wealth managers as it includes the run-up to the UK tax-year-end. Investors are often making sure they have utilised their annual tax-free ISA allowances etc so there tends to be a flurry of investment activity. So I’ve compared net flow performances to one-year prior, Q1-25. 2) Q1 was a weak quarter for investment performance contribution to AUA. January and February were relatively strong, but things turned around in March as the conflict in Iran ratcheted up. The median investment performance contribution to AUA in Q1 was -1.6%.

AJ Bell

It was a strong quarter for AJ Bell, but especially for its D2C business:

• Total customer numbers: +50k to 723k (+7% in the quarter, +22% y-o-y)

• D2C customer numbers: +46k to 534k (+9% in the quarter, +28% y-o-y)

• Advised customers: +4k to 189k (+2% in the quarter, +7% y-o-y)

• Total AUA: +1% in the quarter to £110bn, +20% y-o-y

• Total net flows +£2.7bn in Q1-26 v +£1.8bn in Q1-25

• D2C net flows +£2.2bn in Q1-26 v +£1.4bn in Q1-25

• Adviser net flows +£0.5bn in Q1-26 v + £0.5bn in Q1-25

But the real surge in the share price was with the release of interim results on 21st May, when the impact of the above customer and AUA strength on financial results and outlook became clear. Shares jumped 15% on the day with: PBT +35% to £93bn; AJ Bell stating it expects full year revenue margin, PBT and PBT margin to be higher than previously guided; and a further £15m buyback programme was announced (following on from the previous £50m programme).

Aberdeen

Aberdeen (and Schroders) have a different characteristic to others in this peer group. The bulk of their AUM/AUA is in their asset management businesses. Aberdeen has £383bn AUM in asset management, and £173bn in wealth management (£95bn interactive investor; £79bn adviser). But interactive investor is the jewel and crucially important at group level. It generated £155m of adjusted operating profit in 2025, compared to £86m by adviser and £64m by asset management.

Interactive investor’s impact is clearest when you look the strength of its performance in the quarter, the relative weakness in the rest of the group, and then the positive share price reaction of the group.

In Q1:

• Interactive investor added 13k customers to reach 513k and generated net flows of +£3.0bn (its highest ever quarterly net flow), compared to +£1.6bn in Q1-25.

• Adviser recorded net outflows of -£0.6bn (Q1-25: -£0.6bn).

• Asset management recorded net outflows of -£5.4bn (Q1-26: -£6.4bn).

Shares didn’t react immediately following the Q1 update, treading water for a few days. But then went on a rip, rising 19% between the 5th May and the 27th May.

Proactive reported an upgrade by Citi which included the comments: “Citi highlighted significant re-rating potential across Aberdeen’s business divisions, particularly the investments arm and interactive investor (ii), the direct-to-consumer investment platform acquired in 2022…. suggesting the market is not yet giving full credit to ii’s growth trajectory or the strategic optionality within the wider group.”

Tatton

There’s an anomaly in Tatton’s flow rate analysis this quarter. The above chart excludes the impact of the loss of its Perspective Financial Group mandate from Jan 26, which reduced AUM by c. £3.3bn. It looks like a big headline AUM impact but in reality, it’s just not that big of a deal. This loss was well-flagged from back in June 2025, and it was a low margin account making up c. 14% of AUM but only 2.4% of revenue.

Aside from the Perspective account loss, Tatton maintains exceptionally strong flows and from the details released in its April trading update, it looks on course to exceed my forecasts, and well on course to reach its medium-term growth goals. You can see a summary of my latest research note below:

PensionBee

PensionBee’s UK business looks to be in fine shape and continues to grow strongly. Net flows were solid in the quarter: £221m versus £214m in Q1-25. It added 10k new customers to reach 315k. And AUA was £7.5bn on 31 Mar 26, up 29% y-o-y, with PensionBee announcing it had reached £8bn on 27 Apr 26.

But as I’ve previously written, the share price looks stuck until we start seeing some numbers out of its new venture in the US. It’s a potentially game-changing move for PensionBee, looks well thought out, but it’s early days. My previous post covering this below:

Quilter

Quilter is going strong. Net flows of +£3.0bn in Q1-26 were well up on Q1-25 (£2.2bn). It was the 9th consecutive quarter of positive net flows. AUA is up 19% y-o-y to £142bn. Its WealthSelect MPS offering is a key growth area, reaching £26bn AUA, up 35% y-o-y.

This business looks in so much better shape than back in 2022 and 2023 when it was struggling to maintain positive net flows. The share price is reflecting that though, it’s had a huge recovery and is back to around 2021-high levels.

Integrafin

Integrafin runs the adviser platform, Transact. Net flows were solid at +£1.3bn, up 8% on the £1.2bn of Q1-25. Gross inflows (before outflows) hit a record level £3.1bn. This business has enjoyed steady growth, but the share price has been stuck in the £3-£4 range over the last two years or so. It’s one I will be doing a deeper dive on soon.

St James’s Place

A so-so quarter for SJP with net flows of +£1.5bn, down from £1.7bn in Q1-25. A little worryingly, flows have also been very inconsistent recently. Just compare SJP’s flows to Quilter, which is good comparator - also a large (albeit smaller than SJP), adviser-led wealth manager. Net flows have diverged quite significantly recently.

Also, SJP’s shares haven’t recovered from the “AI will destroy advisers” pullback of Feb 26 - unlike Quilter’s.

Investors seem a little unconvinced by SJP at the moment.

Brooks Macdonald

Brooks produced a send consecutive quarter of net inflows following an awful run of nine quarters of net outflows. In Q1-26, it generated a marginally positive net flow of +£58m, slightly up on Q4-25 (+£50m) but substantially higher than Q1-25 (-£129m).

The turnaround under Andrea Montague seems to be getting some traction, but it’s not showing up in the share price yet.

Rathbones

Rathbones is only just beginning its journey under new CEO Jonathan Sorrell, who has made a return to net inflows a top priority. The business has suffered consistent net outflows over the last few years, with its acquisition of Investec Wealth and Investment contributing to these outflows.

Q1 was once again negative with -£0.85bn of net outflows (Q1-25: -£0.78bn). Investors were probably expecting something a bit more dramatic from Sorrell’s strategic update in Feb 26, with the shares rising sharply in anticipation but then falling back after its delivery.

It looks like Rathbones is going to have to start to deliver its promised growth before investors are convinced.

Valuations

A good place to finish this post is a quick look at valuations. Below is a chart of forward PE ratios (source: Koyfin).

AJ Bell and Tatton seem to fully justify their premium rating, and these premiums don’t look excessive. You might argue that Quilter has room to move up into a premium rating too.

Rathbones and Brooks Macdonald carry discounted ratings, right now probably deservedly so. But if their turnarounds gain traction, there’s certainly scope for big move upwards.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder in a number of the companies mentioned in this publication and covered Tatton Asset Management as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on Tatton here. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

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In April, Impax reported AUM had fallen 14% over its H126 to £22.3bn. This coincided with a period of very heavy outflows for equity funds generally, and for active and sustainable funds especially. So, the consequential hit to results is no surprise. Revenue fell 10% from the prior six-month period (H225) to £58.8m, and adjusted operating profit was down 45% y-o-y to £11.3m.

My detailed Equity Development research note covering the results can be read here.

I’ve argued for a while that this is a quality, highly differentiated asset manager. But its investment strategies have lagged ‘mag-7’ dominated indexes for some time, and it has been hard hit by outflows. The share price has been absolutely hammered.

If/when it does return to consistent net inflows, I reckon there’s a chance of a significant re-rating. But is this close?

There are positive signs. Most significantly, 70% of its AUM (especially its thematic strategies) outperformed benchmark year-to-date, and strong investment outperformance tends to lead net flows. We’ve seen this with other UK-listed active managers.

While the general environment for active managers’ flows has been very weak, flows are certainly not a one-way street towards passive. There are pockets of activity where investors have been deploying capital to actively managed strategies. Areas which have seen net inflows include:

• Technology equities, which naturally have a US bias, with Polar Capital a major beneficiary;

• Systematic equities, with Jupiter (in the last few quarters) and Man Group (throughout 2025) benefiting;

• Global equities, which again have a US bias, with Jupiter a beneficiary;

• EM fixed income, with Ashmore enjoying strong flows in Q4-25.

Could this trend flip in Impax’s favour?

Its recent investment outperformance gives it a good start.

But perhaps more significant is how the changing geopolitical landscape is changing the investment landscape. With a strong likelihood of prolonged geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions to energy markets in particular, investors will surely seek out active managers which are well positioned to navigate this environment.

And Impax has deep investment expertise and product offerings in areas such as energy efficiency, energy security, renewable energy, critical infrastructure (including energy, water, and digital infrastructure) and environmental risk. Here’s a slide from their presentation deck showing some of its focus areas.

This positioning should surely put it high on any investors’ radar?

Read more about Impax and its market environment in my research note here.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder of Impax and covers Impax as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on Impax here. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

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The year-to-date share price chart shows just how wild the ride has been for the UK-listed asset management sector in 2026.

AUM growth during Q1 was mostly negative, with many managers reporting that January and February were stronger months, but the escalating conflict in Iran made for a much weaker March.

At a company level, here are some key points (net flow and investment performance charts are shown below these bullets):

• Polar Capital: Knocked it out of the park. Huge jump in net flows to £1.4bn and very strong investment performance. Share price up c. 10% since Q1 AUM update. Its Global Technology and Artificial Intelligence funds were key contributors to flows and investment performance. But these are not index-hugging funds. The Global Technology fund returned +6.9% net in Q1 versus -7.5% for the benchmark Dow Jones Global Technology Net Total Return Index. The AI fund returned +11.1% versus -3.2% for the benchmark MSCI ACWI TR Index.

• Man Group: Strong investment performance (driven by its alternatives portfolio) but net flows turned negative (-$1.6bn) after 5 successive quarters of positive net flows. There was a redemption of $6.1bn from a single client during the quarter. So outside of that, flows look good. The market didn’t like the update though, shares fell 7% on the day.

• Schroders: Share price jumped on the announcement of a takeover by US-headquartered Nuveen (c. 30% premium to the share price on the day before the announcement). Quarterly performance was pretty good compared to others.

• Jupiter: Very strong net flows. Four quarters of positive net flows now. Very poor investment performance hit AUM though. Completed CCLA acquisition which added £15bn of AUM (total now £68.4bn).

• Ninety One: Middle-of-the-pack organic performance but Sanlam deal added £16.5bn of AUM (total now £172bn).

• Ashmore: Weak quarter. Net flows turned negative again after a very strong Q4-25. Investment performance was negative too. The share price had strong momentum until mid-Feb but has since fallen c. 20%. All eyes are on the investor rotation in emerging markets - and if this has stalled?

• Premier Miton: Heavy outflows and weak investment performance. With AUM down to £9bn, lack of scale is a real issue now. Cost cutting exercise announced. Share price down 8% on the day of the update.

• Impax: Heavy outflows in the quarter but one of only 3 asset managers to record a positive investment performance. Downgraded revenue expectations. The share price fell 25% on the announcement. Impax says investment performance has improved substantially, especially for its thematic strategies. During the quarter, 63% of AUM outperformed. And it’s hard to argue with the company statement: “Longer term, the fundamentals that underpin our investment thesis continue to strengthen, particularly in the areas of renewable energy and energy efficiency, key components of energy security, which is already a priority globally in light of the currently elevated geopolitical tension.” But its all about turning net flows around.

• Liontrust: Heavy outflows persist although not quite as bad as the last few quarters. Very weak investment performance. Announced 2 institutional mandate wins totalling £500m (not yet in AUM number). This is also all about turning net flows around.

• Mercia: While it doesn’t report full AUM details quarterly, private markets specialist Mercia Asset Management had a strong final quarter of its FY26 (ending 31 March). This from my recent Equity Development research note. “Mercia has announced it expects EBITDA to be materially above expectations... Fundraising in H2 was strong, with Q4 alone seeing £200m of new funds raised (from successful VCT and EIS raises) or proposed increases to existing mandates (both quantum and duration). Impressively, there were no redemptions in FY26.”

Here’s the comparison of net flows.

The above should also be read in the context of the net flow environment more generally, which saw UK funds suffer heavy outflows during Q1 (after a much improved Dec-25).

[Calastone measures orders from UK-based investors into funds domiciled in the UK. Note that this has nothing to do with where the underlying assets are invested].

And here is the investment performance comparison. [MSCI ACWI (GBP): -1.27%].

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder in a number of the companies mentioned in this publication, and covered Impax Asset Management, Polar Capital, and Mercia Asset Management, as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on these companies by clicking on each. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

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Tatton Asset Management released a trading update this morning covering Q4 of its FY26. It beat my AUM forecast and looks on track to beat revenue and profit forecasts too. Current monthly net inflows are running ahead of my forecast for FY27. This looks like a well-oiled machine with exceptional momentum.

My latest Equity Development note covers the update which can be found at this link.

All of my previous research on Tatton can be found at this link. If you’re new to the story, I’d recommend reading my interim results note from November 2025 which covers the business model, market forces at work, performance versus peers, growth prospects, financial analysis and valuation.

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Polar Capital released a trading update this morning covering Q4 of its FY26. It knocked it out of the park.

My Equity Development note covers the update which can be found at this link.

Here’s a taster:

Polar delivered an exceptional Q4-26 (Jan – Mar 26) with net inflows of +£1.44bn, following up positive net flows of +£0.15bn in Q3. This stands in stark contrast to equity funds more generally, and active equity funds especially, which suffered heavy outflows in both quarters (page 2). At the end of Q3, Polar had flagged improved client engagement and a strengthening new business pipeline. Clearly, this is now translating into stronger flows.

Despite market falls in March, quarterly investment performance was strong: +£816m (+3% of AUM). AUM ended FY26 on £30.6bn, up 43% y-o-y, well above our previous forecast of £28.4bn.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder of Polar Capital and covered Polar Capital as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on Polar here. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

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Analysing these companies is my job. That analysis work hopefully means I can write this newsletter with a depth of insight that just can’t be replicated by so many other commentaries which simply “skim the results and give a hot take”. If you read a post here and think “that was something I didn’t know”, or “that’s a different way of thinking about it”, then I’ve achieved my goal. All posts are free to subscribers.

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Typical posts include:

• Quarterly, half-yearly, and annual roundups of both sectors: most companies in this space provide quarterly assets-under-management (AUM) updates in addition to half-yearly and annual results, so there’s plenty of data to dig into.

  Example..

• Individual company deep dives and opinions on valuation. Example…

• Results commentaries. Example…

• Strategic sector developments such as the implications of acquisitions. Example…

• Pre-results commentaries. Example…

Plus a lot more.

Where I see opportunities in the companies I am analysing, I might invest in these companies too, so sometimes I do have ‘skin in the game’. I always disclose when I write about a company I am invested in.

If that sounds good to you...

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On fundamentals, Pollen Street has been a top performer. Based on its Q3 trading update from Nov 25, it’s probably going to be one of, if not the strongest performers when it comes to AUM growth among London-listed asset managers. We’ll get more details when it reports 2025 results on 26th March.

Until earlier this year, it looked like the share price priced recognised this. Pollen Street was priced as a ‘winner’. In this early-Feb 26 post, I wrote…

Three asset managers are clearly priced for higher earnings growth than others: Man Group, Pollen Street, and Ashmore. There’s a case to be made that this makes sense…

… (Pollen Street, the) private equity and private credit specialist is also showing strong growth at AUM and earnings level. Its funds are attracting significant interest from investors all around the world with a Q3 trading update (to 30 Sep 25) showing AUM up 32% y-o-y. EBITDA was up 28% y-o-y in the half-year to 30 Jun 25. The share price seems to have been in a reasonably solid uptrend over the last two years or so.

Just six weeks later, that last sentence from the quote above looks very dated! Here’s the updated chart.

That fall has been during a period of virtually no news from the company (RNS’s in 2026 are mostly details of the ongoing share buyback programme and an announcement of some directorate and committee changes - nothing that you’d expect to be needle-moving).

But here’s what did happen in markets:

Private credit fund worries accumulate…

Around 37% (£2.5bn) of Pollen Street’s AUM is in private credit (senior asset-backed credit). The balance is private equity.

But a slow burn of worry around private credit and private credit funds seems to have just accumulated over recent months, and hit the shares of many players in this space - hard (see below). In the US, worries really ratcheted up in Sep and Oct 25 with the Tricolor and First Brands debacles, and Jamie Dimon’s subsequent and now-infamous “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more” comment during the JPMorganChase Q3 2025 earnings call.

Then a bunch of private credit funds restricted or looked to change the terms of withdrawals/redemptions, including funds run by Blackrock, Blue Owl, Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater, and Blackstone. This spurred more widespread worries about the quality of underlying portfolios.

Amidst all of this the problem turned into an AI-linked issue with the launch of new professional-task automation tools by Anthropic. As many private credit loans (especially in the US) have been made to software companies - which some deem to be at risk of massive disruption from AI - the consequence is supposedly a decline in the quality of many private credit portfolios.

And it really does look like London-listed Pollen Street and ICG (both with private equity and private credit funds) have been dragged down by concerns across the pond (all companies in the chart below are US-listed except POLN and ICG).

…but Pollen Street seems distant from these concerns

Pollen Street’s private credit business seems quite distant from the issues associated with portfolio quality concerns in the US. Here’s a summary of its private credit activities from a company presentation.

Not only is there a geographic distance with 90% of Pollen Street’s lending deployed in Europe (incl. the UK). But one of the key differences between Pollen Street and some of the major concerns in the US (which are often associated with loans to software and other companies), is that Pollen Street’s portfolio is largely asset-backed lending, versus corporate lending.

That means the underlying loans in Pollen Street’s portfolio are underpinned by assets which generate returns to repay loans, and these assets can be taken over by the lender and sold to recoup any losses if the borrower gets into difficulty. Corporate lending on the other hand would be relying on the performance of a business (e.g. a software company) to generate cash flow to repay a loan (although some of these loans will have collateral too).

In November 2025, Pollen Street held a Private Credit Teach In, which is an hour or so of really drilling down into the weeds of its private credit business. It’s freely available, and I would recommend any shareholder or potential shareholder watch the whole thing to improve their understanding of what Pollen Street’s private credit business really is.

AI concerns spill into Private Equity too

It’s also possible that some of Pollen Street’s share price fall from just before mid-February could have been related to AI concerns around its private equity portfolio. This portfolio has a very tight sector focus, as illustrated below (source: Pollen Street).

And some of these sectors are in the crosshairs of AI disruption worries too. This (10th Feb 26) Bloomberg article - Wealth Manager Stocks Sink as Traders Flee Next AI Casualty - sums it up:

An artificial intelligence tool aimed at creating tax strategies sparked a selloff in wealth-management stocks Tuesday as investors fear the business could be at risk from automated advice.

The innovation puts the wealth-management industry in the crosshairs of AI competition, the way it did for software stocks and private credit firms last week and insurance brokerage shares on Monday.

But this story and some of the market moves around it seem very much based on “narrative contagion”, where the share prices of companies in specific sectors get hit because of AI concerns - often when a new AI sector-specific tool is released.

These moves look panicky and without deep fundamentals-based research, but they are more than blips. For example, at time of writing, UK wealth manager St James’s Place had only recovered 6% of the 20% fall which took place between 10 and 16 Feb 26.

Iran war muddies picture further

Of course, on top of some of these sector-specific reasons for Pollen Street’s share price fall, is the broader market turbulence brought about by the war in Iran and its fallout.

We just don’t know how this will impact Pollen Street yet.

What I do expect though, is for the results commentary and presentation on 26th March 2026 to shed some light on exactly where Pollen Street stands in relation to some of these widespread market concerns, and if it can shrug off narrative contagion. I’ll be writing about those results, so be sure to subscribe below.

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Wealth manager Evelyn Partners has been under private-equity ownership. It’s being acquired by NatWest.

There’s been plenty of commentary on what this deal means for the ‘40 or so’ private‑equity players in UK advice. Citywire captured it well in their piece: Evelyn’s £2.7bn sale sets high marker for PE sales, noting:

“Other PE investors will be looking to the headline price they negotiated as a marker of ultimate success. It’s a good sign for them that banks seem willing to throw cash around chasing wealth businesses. Barclays, RBC and Lloyds all sounded out Evelyn at some point so it’s not unreasonable to think they will sound out other deals in the coming years.”

But there’s been less said about the implications for London-listed wealth managers. Evelyn competes with quite a few of these, so comparisons are useful. And once you dig into the Evelyn deal, it’s not a huge leap to conclude there might be a big payday looming for shareholders of the ‘right’ listed company.

About Evelyn, financials, acquisition price

Evelyn has a broad wealth management offering including financial planning, discretionary investment management and a direct-to-consumer platform, BestInvest. It has approximately 270 financial planners and 325 investment managers (source: NatWest acquisition announcement). Here’s how it’s size and business model maps against London-listed wealth management peers. [AUA = assets under administration]

And here’s what we know about some of Evelyn’s key metrics (2025 accounts haven’t been published yet but a few numbers were disclosed with the acquisition announcement):

NatWest is going to be buying the business for £2.7bn enterprise value. Let’s see how that stacks up against others in the listed wealth management space.

Acquisition price looks punchy…

Because we don’t have access to Evelyn’s 2025 profits ‘below’ the EBITDA line, or to its latest balance sheet, the best valuation metric we have is probably the EV/EBITDA multiple, which is around 15. This is higher than the current valuation of all listed peers and the multiple paid for recent acquisitions.

Note the above chart is missing a few comparators, notably St James’s Place (SJP), Quilter, and Rathbones, where Enterprise Value and EBITDA are metrics which don’t make a lot of sense for comparative purposes. This is because of their financial structures. SJP and Quilter house long-term insurance licenses (used to provide clients with certain types of investment bonds and pension-related insurance structures). And Rathbones is a bank (even though its core business is wealth management, it uses its banking license to provide clients with some wealth-management-adjacent deposit and loan services - not transactional banking services).

…especially given fundamental performance

That acquisition multiple might not be a surprise at first glance, but when viewed through the lens of performance versus listed peers, it looks very punchy. While its valuation multiple is higher than peers, Evelyn had the second-weakest AUA growth in 2025…

…the third weakest net flow rate…

…and an OK but not that impressive EBITDA margin. (Furthermore, its statutory PBT is actually very low - see table above - mostly because of the amortisation charges related to previous acquisitions).

For a more comprehensive analysis of wealth managers’ performance in 2025, see my previous post:

NatWest’s rationale

The comments and comparisons above don’t mean that Evelyn won’t be a good acquisition for NatWest, it may very well be.

In its acquisition announcement, NatWest made the following points about deal rationale:

• It diversifies NatWest’s income by increasing fee income (decreasing the proportion of net interest income).

• It broadens NatWest’s wealth management offering (currently £59bn AUA compared to Evelyn’s £69bn) which is currently Coutts (high net worth) and NatWest Premier (mass affluent) - with what looks like a clear intention to cross sell across the group: “NatWest Group also intends to deliver significant revenue synergies through bringing Evelyn Partners’ leading financial planning and investment management solutions together with NatWest Group’s full suite of banking and wealth management solutions to our 20 million customers.”

• It thinks there are significant cost synergies: “NatWest Group expects the combination of Evelyn Partners with its existing PBWM (private bank and wealth management) business to create material shareholder value, including estimated annual run-rate cost synergies of c.£100 million, equivalent to around 10% of the combined PBWM cost base, with costs to achieve of c.£150 million.”

NatWest management were eager to emphasise that the price made sense to them: “Evelyn Partners generated full year 2025 EBITDA of £179m, meaning that the transaction values Evelyn Partners at the equivalent of 9.7x 2025 EV to EBITDA multiple, including target run-rate cost synergies” (my emphasis).

A fun few minutes for those that are interested and have the time would be to listen to the deal announcement analyst call (from around 6 minutes) - where analysts try to get to the bottom of that ‘future’ 9.7x multiple.

Implications for the listed wealth management sector

NatWest have clearly been prepared to pay for a fair chunk of future synergies. With other large banks (possibly other large financial institutions too) sniffing around the wealth management sector, it’s worth thinking about the potential for acquisitions of London-listed companies, and the potential premium to current pricing that might be paid.

It’s not hard to imagine the strategic rationale for further acquisitions, for example:

• With similar logic to NatWest, one of the other major banks could look to beef up its wealth and/or investment management offerings by acquiring say Quilter (£141bn AUA), or Rathbones (£116bn AUA). Quilter also brings a large adviser platform to the table. Rathbones is a bank, so you’d have to think there would be cost savings if acquired by another bank - two banking licenses wouldn’t be needed. The NatWest deal is not a one-off. RBC bought Brewin Dolphin in 2022, when Brewin’s AUA was around £52bn.

• D2C platform businesses have been attractive to a range of buyers over the years - giving direct access to a client base and usually a scalable technology platform. Asset manager Aberdeen bought interactive investor in 2022; bank JP Morgan Chase bought Nutmeg in 2021; and insurer Aviva bought Wealthify in 2017 (the latter two were relatively small deals but the strategic rationale is the point here).

• And then a host of players (including larger wealth/investment managers) might look at ‘buying scale’ in the fast-growing MPS (model portfolio service) space, by acquiring say Tatton, or Brooks Macdonald.

Then consider the multiple that might be paid if the Evelyn deal is anything to go by. Remember the Evelyn deal is being done at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 15x. That’s going to include an ‘acquisition premium’. And that’s for a company with a 2025 AUA growth rate of 8% and an EBITDA margin of 35%. Now compare that to two listed companies, just as examples:

• Tatton currently trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of around 14.5x (excluding an acquisition premium). But it grew AUA by 22% in just the first three quarters of 2025 (Q4 data not available), and by 30% in its FY to 31 Mar 24. Its EBITDA margin is around 47%.

• AJ Bell currently trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of just over 11x (excluding an acquisition premium). It grew AUA by 15% in 2025, with an EBITDA margin of 43%.

Putting the above strategic and financial points together, it’s not a stretch to suggest the following:

• if you accept that the NatWest/Evelyn deal multiple is a reasonable benchmark; and

• a large acquirer identifies a strong strategic rationale and/or synergies from an acquisition in the UK-listed wealth management space; then

• that large acquirer will probably have to be paying substantially more than a 15x EV/EBITDA multiple (because most listed players have superior economics than Evelyn).

That is likely to mean the target company’s shareholders might realise a very large premium to current share price (given current EV/EBITDA multiples).

The alternative of course is that NatWest could be paying a price that is simply an outlier (on the expensive side). The passing of time and any future deals will show us which of the above is true. It’s going to be a fascinating sector to watch.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder in a number of the companies mentioned in this publication and covered Tatton Asset Management as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on Tatton here. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

In Oct 25, I went into some detail on Jupiter’s valuation in this post:

At that time, my bull case DCF valuation produced a fundamental valuation of 227p per share, my bear case 137p. The current share price (26 Feb 26) is 195p, up c. 3.5% on the day of this results announcement. Here’s the assumptions behind those previous valuations (share prices in the table are at the time of publication of the above post).

And here’s a steer on how the above forward assumptions align with the actual 2025 performance and management’s commentary and outlook from their presentation earlier today (spoiler: they look a bit conservative):

• Net flow rate: Net flow rate over 2025 was +2.9% but it jumped in Q4 (+2.4% in Q4 alone - nearly the highest in the sector - see chart below). Management have said positive flow momentum has continued into Q1-26 with £1bn+ of net flows, that’s around +1.8% of AUM in 2 months alone. My bull case net flow rate assumption is looking light.

  

• Investment performance: Looking forward, there’s obviously huge uncertainty around this assumption. But in 2026, so far so good. The MSCI ACWI is up 4.7% year to date.

• Performance fees: Jupiter knocked it out of the park in 2025 with £120m of performance fees (up from £31m in 2024). As a percentage of net management fees, that’s 27%, 10X my assumption of 2.7% which was based on historical averages. The large performance fee number has also been the main driver of Jupiter announcing a special dividend. (The total 2025 dividend including the special dividend translates to a yield of c. 5%). The jump in performance fees in 2025 will obviously push my bull case valuation upwards. Management have guided around £20m in 2026 which is about double my previous assumption. My bull case performance fee assumptions are looking light over the short term. Of course, there’s no guarantee of these materialising.

• Fee margin: Net fee margin closed 2025 a touch lower than my previous assumption (65bps versus my assumption of 66bps). Management have guided a reduction to 63bps for 2026 which is slightly lower than my previous assumption of 64bps. My net fee margin is looking slightly high, but not materially so.

• Cost: Income ratio: This was 82% in 2025, about in line with my assumption. Management have maintained their target of 70% by 2030, and stated in the results announcement they have increased confidence in meeting this target. Mine is a little more conservative at 75% by that time. If management meet their targets, my cost assumptions are looking a little high.

In summary, Jupiter’s 2025 performance has been far higher than my previous assumptions, driven mainly by a big jump in performance fees. However, management’s outlook and guidance going forward are also mostly higher than my previous bull case assumptions. My bull case valuation is clearly going to go up from the previous 227p per share. I’ll be posting full details of this revised valuation soon…

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Shareholders have enjoyed stellar returns from Jupiter over the last year or so (following a huge fall in the share price over 2022, 2023, and 2024). But there may very well be more juice to come in Jupiter’s jump.

Be sure to subscribe to TheInvestors.blog to get notified when my updated valuation drops and to keep up to date with the UK asset and wealth management sectors.

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2025 was a year of solid AUM growth for the UK-listed wealth management sector.

Markets provided a solid tailwind.

But there was huge disparity in net flows. Tatton and PensionBee are clear highflyers. Quilter and Integrafin had solid net flows. Flows were positive but not particularly strong for Aberdeen, St James’s Place, AJ Bell and Schroders. Brooks Macdonald and Rathbones suffered from net outflows.

Quarterly net flow data (shown below as a ‘heat map’) provides far greater insights than the above annual view, highlighting trends of improving or weakening flows.

• Tatton maintains the strongest flows by some distance, even though 2025 saw a slight cooling after a bumper 2024.

• PensionBee flows are still strong, but net flow rate is slowing as AUM grows fairly rapidly off a small base (current AUM c. £7.4bn, next smallest AUM in this group is Brooks Mcdonald at c. £17.8bn excluding advised-only assets).

• Quilter (with the third-largest AUM in this group: c. £141bn) has seen an impressive recovery in net flows since very weak flows in 2023 (0.1% annual net flow rate).

• Q4-25 saw a sharp drop in net flow rates for AJ Bell, St James’s Place, Aberdeen, and (to a lesser extent) Schroders. This was mostly attributed to investor nervousness ahead of the UK budget. For example:

  AJ Bell said: “Record gross inflows were moderated by temporarily elevated outflows, driven largely by uncertainty ahead of the UK Budget. Customers nearing retirement responded to speculation around potential pension tax changes, resulting in a £500 million increase in pension withdrawals compared with Q1 FY25.”

  St James’s Place said: “The final quarter also saw elevated short-term outflows, as many clients accelerated tax-free cash (TFC) withdrawals from their pensions in anticipation of reduced TFC allowances. As we exited the quarter, we were pleased to see both outflow rates and client engagement normalise, and this has continued into the early part of 2026.”

• Brooks Mcdonald appears to be making good progress in turning around the very weak flows of 2023 and 2024. Net flows were positive in Q4-25 after a protracted period of net outflows. This is especially impressive given the jump in gross outflows seen by others during this quarter.

• Rathbones is still struggling with net outflows, but investor sentiment certainly seems to be turning (see below), following the integration of the large Investec Wealth acquisition and the appointment of a new CEO.

Share price moves differed hugely across the sector, with some relatively steady, and others extremely volatile.

• St James’s Place recovered strongly after it’s huge c. 77% slump over 2022, 2023, and early-2024. But it was then hit again by the “AI will replace advisers” scare of early-Feb 26. The share price is c. 27% off early-2022 highs.

• Rathbone’s share price had a strong year, with markets responding very positively to the appointment and early-tenure messaging of new CEO Jonathan Sorrell (announced Mar 25).

• Quilter also had a strong year as business fundamentals, especially net flows, improved.

• Other share price moves were relatively small.

This has left forward-PE Ratios in a fairly tight range.

I’m not surprised by Tatton’s highest-in-sector PER, given its far superior growth and especially strong net flows. But the premium doesn’t appear particularly large. See my previous research on Tatton here.

And I’m not surprised by Rathbones and Brooks Macdonald having the lowest PERs, given their weaker net flows. But again, these are not huge discounts.

PensionBee is an outlier as it is still far earlier-stage than others in this group, and is not yet profitable on a statutory earnings basis (but it’s not far off). See my previous comments on PensionBee here.

What is clear, is that untangling investment opportunities in the wealth management space requires some deeper digging than a cursory overview of some of the “headline numbers” presented above. I’ll be doing some of that digging in future posts.

My next post covering this sector is to dig a little deeper into the relative valuation of Evelyn Partners which is to be acquired by Natwest. Only some of the latest financials of Evelyn have been disclosed, but there are a few clues we can take a look at to put that deal in context and compare it to current valuations of listed companies in the UK wealth management sector.

Be sure to subscribe to TheInvestors.blog below to be notified when these upcoming posts are published and to keep up to date with further insights into the UK asset and wealth management sectors.

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TheInvestors.blog is not investment advice. Please read the disclaimer here.

When you dig into valuations in the UK asset management sector, a segmentation becomes clear:

1. There’s a group ‘priced to win’, which seem to be performing well on fundamentals, and have share prices reflecting solid (but I wouldn’t say spectacular) growth expectations. Investors need to assess if these can keep performing.

2. There’s a group ‘priced to lose’, with some clear weaknesses in their fundamentals (at the moment). Investors need to assess if they can turn things around. There could be huge rewards for those calling a turnaround correctly.

3. Then there’s a ‘peloton’, with a mixed back of fundamentals, opportunities and risks, which are valued quite similarly. Investors need to evaluate who might make a break for the lead, or drop off the back.

In part 1, published a few days ago, I looked at assets under management (AUM) movements over 2025. It’s important context for this post and I’d recommend reading it before this one.

Who’s trading at a premium, who’s at a discount?

PE ratios can be misleading in the asset management sector. If calculated using statutory earnings, they can get heavily distorted in some cases. The three main culprits are:

1. Amortisation arising from acquisition accounting: Quite a few AMs have made acquisitions over the last few years and as part of this, usually book an intangible asset on their balance sheet (e.g. ‘acquired customer relationships’) and then amortise that asset over time. This non-cash cost can be significant. For example, in Premier Miton’s latest results, this amortisation charge was £5.2m, compared to PBT of £2.4m, so it has a huge inflating impact on the ‘statutory’ PE ratio, pushing it to more than 60 in this case, which I think is fair to say is a misleading ratio.

2. Movements in the value of on-balance-sheet investments: AMs often have investments on their balance sheet (e.g. they might invest their own capital to seed a new fund) which are sometimes very significant in relation to the size of their balance sheet (more detail below). These usually get marked-to-market with the change in value running through the income statement. This gain or loss can sometimes be significant and again distort earnings and PE ratios. For example, in its latest half-year results, ICG’s income statement recorded net gains on investments of £137m compared to PBT of £354m, which deflates its statutory PE ratio.

3. Exceptional/non-recurring charges: Usually related to acquisitions, or to ‘one-off’ transformation/restructuring programmes.

So, it’s useful to look at PERs with the above items stripped out of earnings. In the chart below I show these ‘adjusted’ PERs (black bars) as well as PERs based on statutory earnings (grey dotted bars) to illustrate how PERs for the same company can be wildly different depending on how you measure earnings.

But even the above adjusted PE ratios are not quite telling the whole story. Baked into share prices are, in some cases, very substantial net cash positions and very substantial on-balance sheet investments. Well, they should be baked into the share price - I’m not convinced they actually are in all cases.”

In the chart below, I show the latest available net cash and net on-balance-sheet investment value (combined) as a percentage of share price.

The difference between that balance sheet value and the share price are the green bars above (red in the case of Mercia – an extreme outlier – see further commentary below), which I’ve labelled as an approximate market value of fund management business. That’s anything but perfect because of course asset managers need some cash for regulatory compliance and to run their business and sometimes need to invest in their own funds to build clients’ confidence - you can’t totally isolate these balance sheet items. But it is useful to highlight the scale of some asset managers’ cash piles and investment portfolios.

So for an even better relative comparison of asset managers’ valuations, we can strip out the value of the above balance sheet items from the share price, and create a ‘balance-sheet-adjusted PER’, which deducts the net cash and net investments per share from each company’s share price, and then divides that by adjusted earnings per share.

On a standalone basis, the absolute values of these PERs are not that useful (as part of these balance sheet items are necessary to generate earnings), but the relative value of these PERs between asset managers is extremely useful. It strips out a lot of the noise found in ‘normal’ PE Ratios and really does tease out which asset managers’ share prices are baking in earnings growth, or not.

Priced to win

Three asset managers are clearly priced for higher earnings growth than others: Man Group, Pollen Street, and Ashmore. There’s a case to be made that this makes sense, but investors need to really dig into the details:

Man Group

It has recorded the strongest net flows by some margin in recent times (see part 1 of this post) and has clearly got an attractive offering to many clients. It’s ‘quant focus’ is a key differentiator. The share price has staged a significant recovery after heavy falls in 2024 and early-2025. It looks well placed fundamentally but a fair amount of earnings growth is already priced in. Investors also need to have a stomach for volatile earnings as a result of the significance of its performance fees. Keep a look out for 2025 results - to be released on 26 Feb 26.

Pollen Street

This private equity and private credit specialist is also showing strong growth at AUM and earnings level. Its funds are attracting significant interest from investors all around the world with a Q3 trading update (to 30 Sep 25) showing AUM up 32% y-o-y. EBITDA was up 28% y-o-y in the half-year to 30 Jun 25. The share price seems to have been in a reasonably solid uptrend over the last two years or so. Keep a look out for 2025 results - usually out in late-March.

Ashmore

This emerging markets fixed income specialist has had a torrid few years - in fundamental terms (huge outflows) and in share price terms (huge price falls). Much of that was clearly down to emerging markets being out of favour relative to the US. But that seems to have turned around (although it’s very early days). Net outflows slowed during 2025 and turned sharply positive in Q4. The share price has more than doubled since Apr 25 lows. Adjusted EBITDA is a fraction of what it used to be: £53m in the FY to 30 Jun 25, compared to £196m in the FY to 30 Jun 21. So there’s potential for a big earnings recovery, but that’s highly dependent on the net flow recovery continuing. Interim results are due on 12 Feb 26.

Priced to lose

Mercia

Mercia is a true outlier. You would no doubt have picked that up from the chart above showing a negative balance-sheet-adjusted-PE-Ratio. The share price discounts the value of its significant on-balance sheet investments by an enormous amount. This is so large I titled one of my more recent posts, summarising its interim results, as follows:

It looks to me that in this case, a high-quality asset management business is just fundamentally mispriced. But do your own research on this one. To help you, you may want to watch my recent interview with CEO Mark Payton here: In conversation with Dr Mark Payton (CEO).

Premier Miton, Liontrust, Impax

These have not (yet?) turned the corner that Ashmore (and others) have. They are still experiencing substantial outflows, and their share prices keep getting hammered. But I don’t think the future direction of their share prices is particularly complicated. They simply have to get back to positive net flows. If that happens, share prices are likely to jump. Just look at the share price reaction of Ashmore, Jupiter, and Ninety One when their flows turned around after prolonged periods of outflows. It was huge. Up 106%, 195%, and 113% from their Apr 25 lows respectively. If net flows don’t turn positive, these share prices are likely to keep lagging peers.

Can they do this?

Premier Miton

In its latest AUM update, Premier Miton recorded net outflows in all strategies except fixed income, which were positive. Equities experienced quite heavy outflows. It said: “

“…outflows from our US and European equity strategies continued into the current Period, reflecting investor risk aversion and the rotation away from growth‑oriented equities seen over recent quarters… Demand for our fixed income strategies remained robust… Although market conditions have been challenging, particularly for active equity managers, we are encouraged by the improvement in short‑term performance across several key strategies, particularly in the US. With interest rates now falling, we believe the environment for active equity investing should become more constructive as we move through 2026…”

Outflows can’t only be blamed on market conditions though. While most active equity managers have indeed experienced net outflows, not all have. Man Group, Schroders, and Jupiter (all with large equities franchises) have recorded positive net flows in most of 2025, and Polar was only very slightly negative. So I suppose it’s just about Premier Miton delivering on its cautiously optimistic outlook.

Liontrust

I find Liontrust a tricky one to evaluate. It has a very large UK-retail client base (through wholesale and other channels: around 86% of AUM is in UK retail funds, MPS, and Investment Trusts). But the recent narrative has covered more bases. There has been much talk about diversification. From a client-type diversification perspective, Liontrust has said it wants to grow its institutional client base. In a recent CityWire interview of CEO John Ions (worth a read), a big emphasis was on acquisitions and on the diversification benefits that could bring (products, geographies and distribution). He also emphasised up-skilling the sales team. So how all of that pieces together remains to be seen.

Impax

In the case of Impax, I’ve looked into this in some detail, and would refer you to my latest Equity Development research note. It’s been hard hit by outflows (an especially large St James’s Place mandate was lost). But Impax is highly focused and I reckon could turn the corner sooner rather than later. I wrote in the above note:

“Our expectation is that Impax will return to robust long-term growth. It operates in the sustainable investing space which, despite many headlines to the contrary, is a huge US$3.7trn market that is growing… Impax is uniquely placed… It has been focused on finding economically attractive investments within the sustainable transition for 27 years. It has not opportunistically ridden the ‘ESG bandwagon’. As others exit this space and the number of competing funds fall, Impax can thrive”.

But it’s not thriving yet.

In part three of this post, I’ll be looking into ‘The Peloton’, and evaluate who might make a break for the lead, or drop off the back.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder in a number of the companies mentioned in this publication, and covered Impax Asset Management, Polar Capital, and Mercia Asset Management, as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on these companies by clicking on each. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

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Note of edits: This post originally referred to an upcoming ‘part 2’. That has been updated to refer to ‘parts 2 & 3’. Part 2 started becoming very long, so was split to become parts 2 & 3.

During 2025, and into January 2026, shareholders of UK-listed Asset Managers experienced wildly divergent fortunes.

In this part 1, I look at assets under management (AUM) movements over 2025, and the impact it has had on asset managers’ share prices. Spoiler: Often, the impact is huge, and changing AUM fortunes, especially net flows, can have a VERY rapid, and VERY large impact on share prices (more detail below).

But it’s not all about AUM. In parts 2 & 3 of this series, to be published in a few days, I’ll look into other factors: cost cutting, management & strategy changes, acquisitions, asset classes moving in or out of favour, share buy-backs, and more. I’ll also present the current ‘state of play’ of valuations in the sector (it’s not just about PE ratios!).

These two posts should hopefully make it a bit clearer if 2025 has left some asset managers richly valued, and others trading at unjustified bargain basement levels.

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A year of AUM growth (mostly)

2025 was a year which saw most UK-listed asset managers grow AUM, but the variance between managers was enormous.

Investment returns the primary growth driver

Growth was primarily due to strong markets and solid investment returns, despite the sharp falls in Apr 25 related to the US’s ‘liberation day’ tariff announcements.

Standout returns were achieved by City of London Investment Group (CLIG), driven in particular by its emerging markets and international equities strategies, and by Polar Capital, driven in particular by its large exposure to technology equities strategies (this was despite a currency headwind as Polar reports AUM in GBP which strengthened significantly against the dollar in 2025 - see note in chart above).

Volatile flows, mostly negative but improving

Net flows were volatile during 2025 with heavy outflows relatively common. With the exception of Man Group which attracted strong net inflows during Q1-Q3 and Ashmore in Q4, even when positive net flows were recorded by asset managers, these were not large.

But it was mostly an improving picture during the year, especially compared to a very weak Q1 (I would expect to see two more green bars added to Q4 in the chart below: Ninety One reported +5% AUM growth in Q4 - it did not split out the impact of flows and investment returns - but investment returns are unlikely to have been that high in the quarter so it probably achieved positive net flows; and given Man Group’s recent strong flow momentum, it’s reasonable to expect positive flows for Q4 - it hadn’t reported at the time of publication).

Share prices (often) follow flow fortunes

Now let’s revert back to share price movements and dive into some more detail on the link between share price and AUM flow. While share price divergence is linked to many factors, net flow fortunes are clearly playing a big role.

Just look at the differing share price fortunes (over a three-year period) of Jupiter, Ninety One and Ashmore; versus Impax, Liontrust and Premier Miton.

In 2023 and for most of 2024, all six of these asset managers experienced consistent and heavy net outflows.

But the net flow fortunes of Jupiter, Ninety One, and Ashmore started to turnaround in 2025 and move into positive net flows:

• Jupiter: Net flows turned positive in Q2-25 after negative net flows in 8 out of 9 quarters between Jan 23 and Mar 25.

• Ninety One: Net flows jumped substantially in the Apr-Sep 25 half-year after 5 consecutive half-years of heavy outflows and a small positive net flow in Oct 24 – Mar 25 half-year.

• Ashmore: Outflows slowed substantially in Q2 & Q3 25, then turned positive in Q4-25 after 11 quarters of negative net flows (from Jan 23)

As can be seen from the chart above, the share prices of Jupiter, Ninety One and Ashmore kicked upwards very rapidly with this net flow turnaround.

Premier Miton, Liontrust, and Impax have not (yet?) turned this corner. These managers are still experiencing substantial outflows and their share prices keep getting hammered. But the share price reaction of other managers suggests that if and when net flows turnaround, the share price reaction could be substantial over a very short period. In part 2 of this post, I’ll look into the potential for that occurring.

What I’ll also be doing in parts two & three is laying out the current valuations of all fifteen UK-listed asset managers, and on a company-by-company basis, looking into what I think might be the most important triggers (beyond AUM moves) for future share price moves.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder in a number of the companies mentioned in this publication, and covered Impax Asset Management, Polar Capital, and Mercia Asset Management, as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on these companies by clicking on each. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

TheInvestors.blog is not investment advice. Please read the disclaimer here.

I recently sat down with Dr Mark Payton, CEO of Mercia Asset Management. You can watch the full interview here (33mins).

Or you can dip into shorter sections of the interview below:

About Mercia: Business model, differentiators, sourcing investment opportunities others don’t see, why investing outside of London has huge potential for attractive investment returns. (3mins)

Investment opportunities in Venture Capital, Private Equity, Debt, Property, Real Assets; where Mercia sources capital; growth headroom (7mins)

Implications of the UK Budget: Autumn ‘25 budget, British Business Bank, EIS, VCTs. (5mins)

Driving shareholder returns: realising direct investments; growing the fund management business; simplifying the business. (2mins)

On-balance sheet investments: the NAV/share-price disconnect – how Mercia values direct investments; pragmatic exit strategies; working with management; current exit environment. (8mins)

History of acquisition success & potential for a 'real assets' acquisition. (3mins)

Useful metrics for shareholders to track Mercia's success: scaling to drive operational leverage, productivity & efficiency; using AI to assist scaling. (3mins)

You can read my latest research note about Mercia Asset Management here: EBITDA & margin up again, undervaluation rises.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder in Mercia Asset Management and covered it as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on Mercia here. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

TheInvestors.blog is not investment advice. Please read the disclaimer here.

Since its strong rally in the first half of 2024, PensionBee’s share price looks stuck.

This is two businesses:

• The original UK business, which is now well established but still scaling-up. It looks to have comfortably moved past breakeven, while maintaining solid reinvestment to maintain growth of its customer base and AUA.

• Then there is the US business which has only just launched. Being so early stage, there are really only ‘project milestones’ to judge progress. More ‘hard metrics’ around customer numbers and AUA growth are expected during 2026. The potential in the US is enormous.

It’s impossible to untangle how much of the share price is being attributed to each business. But let’s dig into the latest update to see what might move the share price needle.

PensionBee UK

Growth is still strong.

Net flows have been relatively consistent at around £200m per quarter, with some seasonality.

The seasonality of the business is more obvious in marketing spend deployment, with Q1 typically conducive to ramping up spending, and Q4 less so. The run up to Christmas is not that conducive for encouraging consumers to invest in their pensions.

Also worth noting is that in the second half of 2025, the UK budget was certainly a drag on pension investments - an issue highlighted by PensionBee and others in the UK wealth management space.

This can be seen in marketing spend efficiency. In 2025, PensionBee generated lower gross inflows per £ of marketing spend compared to prior years. In the chart below it is clear that the usual Q4 spike in gross inflows per £ of marketing spend was largely absent in 2025 (this metric usually spikes in Q4 as marketing spend in Q4 falls while gross inflows should still have some momentum from marketing spend in Q2 & Q3).

The company also attributes the fall in marketing spend efficiency to its strategy of targeting a slightly younger age cohort in 2025. The size of incoming pension pots are highly correlated to age (older cohorts bring larger pension pots).

In PensionBee’s results presentation on 21 Jan 26, CFO Christoph Martin said they are targeting a slightly older demographic in 2026, with a subsequent increase in incoming pot size expected, which should also drive an increase in gross inflows per £ of marketing spend. With the UK budget out of the way, a less nervous consumer should also contribute to increased gross inflows.

This is a metric I’ll be watching out for in the first two quarters of 2026 to see if there is any ‘bounce back’ in marketing spend efficiency.

Offsetting the above headwind though has been a continuing increase in operating leverage. One of the cleaner measures of this is the number of invested customers per staff member - and this remains on a solid upwards trajectory as PensionBee scales.

AUA growth and operating leverage has translated to improving financials for PensionBee’s UK business.

It’s worth highlighting that:

1. Revenue is recurring and is compounded as positive net flows (from new customers transferring their pension pots to PensionBee and from existing customers topping up their pension pots) add to an existing AUA base from which fees are generated.

2. The average age of a PensionBee customer is around 40, and the customer retention rate is c. 96%, so flows from existing customers should grow rapidly over time. This is not just about winning new customers.

3. EBITDA is volatile on a quarterly basis, mostly because of the volatility in marketing spend.

4. EBITDA has clearly moved into positive territory for the UK, with the business now able to reinvest profits. PensionBee UK doubled its EBITDA in 2025, despite a substantial ramp up in marketing spend from £9m to £12m.

While there are certainly some market headwinds in the form of UK customers being more reluctant to invest in their pensions because of economic and policy uncertainty, it’s pretty clear to me that PensionBee UK is a business with an engine that is purring along smoothly. I expect growth to continue and profits to ramp quite quickly over the next few years.

PensionBee US

It’s very early days for the US business. It has only just launched and AUA is just US$3m. 2025 was really about building the foundations and building brand awareness. But the ball is rolling and the opportunity is enormous. It’s just hard to judge how big this business could be.

As I’ve said before, PensionBee’s US strategy this looks well-thought-through. It is not a moon-shot move by a UK business wanting to tackle the largest market in the world. PensionBee is partnering with the large US financial State Street, which it has a longstanding relationship with. State Street has run investments for PensionBee since around 2016 and became a shareholder in 2017. I’d refer you to pages 13-16 of its 2024 results presentation for a good summary of what PensionBee is doing in the US and pages 9-12 of its 2025 interim results presentation for an update..

Another point worth highlighting is that PensionBee is unashamedly ‘leaning west’, trying to attract more interest from US shareholders. This makes sense. I think it’s fair to say US investors are far more enthusiastic about a growth story than UK investors. PensionBee has had significant US shareholders for quite a few years now. But as its presence as a business builds there, so too should its profile as a business to invest in. (There was a reason that in 2024 it moved its results announcements from the usual UK early-morning slot to late-afternoon UK-time!).

To further grease the wheels of this ‘westward lean’, PensionBee announced in Dec 25 it has qualified to trade on the OTCQX Best Market (’OTCQX’) - .

PensionBee will continue to trade primarily on the London Stock Exchange (LON: PBEE). The OTCQX trading facility will operate alongside this primary listing to enhance international investor access and support improved, cost-effective trading convenience.

‘Unsticking’ the share price

The first chart of this post shows that PensionBee’s share price appears stuck in a range. What might move the share price (to the upside)?

1. Success in the UK should move it upwards, but probably gradually. Success would mean continuing to build customer numbers, AUA, and a rapid ramp up in cash generation and profitability. As investors start to see profits move from promise to reality and become larger and larger, they will likely assign a larger value to the UK business (it also becomes far easier to value when it’s profitable!). But I reckon this is likely to be a gradual process, building value over a few years.

2. Strong traction in the US could provide a sudden kick upwards. The US might be a different story. If PensionBee starts to show tangible and rapid progress in the US (initially measured by customer numbers, AUA, and revenue), investors might assign a much higher value to this business as PensionBee US moves from ‘buildout’ to ‘initial growth’ to ‘scale-up’. But what do those numbers need to be and by when, to trigger a share price move?

What do you think? Feel free to post thoughts in the comments section of this post.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder in PensionBee.

This is an update of a previous post which I keep pinned to the top of the website. It is an overview of the UK-listed asset and wealth management sector. There’s been quite a few changes since the original post!

TheInvestors.blog aims to provide nuggets of market and company analysis for shareholders of publicly-listed asset and wealth managers.

It should also be a useful read for directors, executives, and managers of these companies - offering insights into how investors are thinking about them and their peers.

TheInvestors.blog is not investment advice. Please read the disclaimer here.

Which companies are written about?

There are two main groups of companies covered in this newsletter:

1. Asset managers (left hand column in graphic below): These run investment funds which would typically make up only a part of an investor’s portfolio. Funds often have some sort of specialisation such as investing in a particular industry sector, asset class, or geography. Funds can certainly grow rapidly and benefit from ‘hot asset classes’ (think private assets over the last few years). But fund assets tend to be less sticky than those managed by wealth managers. Think about a scenario when an investor wants to exit an investment placed with an asset manager. They would be likely to move those assets to another asset manager or into cash.

2. Wealth managers (right hand column in graphic below): These tend to house all or a large part of an investors’ portfolio (often spread across a range of investments such as individual equities or asset managers’ investment funds). The invested assets may or may not be coupled with investment advice. Assets tend to be stickier than those of asset managers. Think about a scenario when an investor wants to exit an investment or asset class, they will probably execute this switch without moving assets from their wealth manager. It is simply a case of switching from one financial product to another. This newsletter also includes platforms (such as AJ Bell and IntegraFin - Hargreaves Lansdown is no longer publicly-listed) and discretionary fund managers or DFMs (such as Tatton Asset Management, Brooks Macdonald) in the wealth management segment, as they tend to manage or administer portfolios for investors.

There are also companies which run both asset and wealth management operations (centre column in graphic below).

Who does what?

The big beasts (with asset and wealth management operations)

Schroders: Multinational asset manager with diverse offering serving a range of institutional and private investors. Public and private markets investment capabilities. It also has a significant advisory business (e.g. investment and advisory services to corporate pension schemes, insurance companies etc). Asset management AUM dominates (> 80% of AUM). It has a smaller but still significant wealth management arm (Cazenove Capital, Benchmark, Schroders Personal Wealth).

Aberdeen: Three segments: Investments - multinational asset management business with a range of funds, investment solutions and investment trusts (>70% of AUM); Adviser - UK’s 2nd largest adviser platform; Interactive Investor - the UK’s 2nd largest D2C investment platform.

Asset management segment

Man Group: Invests in equities, credit and multi-assets across public and private markets. Quant-focused (systematic) strategies as well as fundamental, research driven strategies. Roughly 40-45% of AUM sourced from EMEA, 40% Americas, 15-20% Asia Pacific.

Ninety One: Teams covering equities, fixed income, and multi-asset. Origins in South Africa, where it still has substantial operations and is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (in addition to its London-listing). Now a global operation with around 40% of AUM sourced from clients in Africa, 33% UK & Europe, 17% APAC and 10-12% Americas. ·

ICG [Intermediate Capital Group]: Private markets specialist with private equity (mid and upper-mid market), credit (direct lending, mezzanine, and structured credit solutions), real assets (infrastructure equity, real estate, and related private market strategies), and secondaries strategies (through ICG Strategic Equity, acquiring stakes in private equity funds). Operates across EMEA, America, APAC, UK & Ireland.

Jupiter: Active manager with equities, fixed income and multi-manager strategies. Primarily UK (c. 65% of AUM) and EMEA (c. 22%) client base. 82% of AUM from retail, wholesale and investment trust channels, 18% from institutional investors. A key strategy is to increase proportion of institutional AUM.

Ashmore: Specialist emerging markets active manager focused primarily on fixed income strategies (c. 85% of AUM) with equities making up c. 12% of AUM.

Impax: Specialist is sustainable investing. Mostly listed equities strategies but also offers fixed income, systematic, and private markets strategies. A key focus is to build fixed income AUM. Clients mainly institutional investors. 58% of AUM sourced from EMEA, 7% UK, 34% North America, 1% APAC.

Liontrust: Active manager with equities and especially UK-equities bias. UK retail investors dominate client base (83% of AUM in UK retail funds and MPS). Largest investment strategies are Sustainable Investment (35% of AUM) and Multi-Asset (18%).

Polar Capital: ‘Multi-boutique’ with 14 investment teams managing specialist portfolios with a thematic, sector, geographic, or financial instrument focus. Technology (51% of AUM), healthcare (14%) and Emerging Markets & Asia (14%) are the largest strategies. Targets mostly institutional investors with client base primarily in UK (c. 61%) and across Europe ex-UK (c. 26%).

Foresight: Specialist investor in infrastructure/real assets (80% of AUM), private equity (12% of AUM) and listed securities (8% of AUM), mostly with a sustainability theme e.g. energy transition.

Premier Miton: Manages a range of equity strategies (45% of AUM: 16% of total AUM in UK equities, 29% in non-UK), multi-asset (26%), fixed income (21%), and absolute return (8%) strategies. Most of its AUM is in funds but it does have some AUM sourced via segregated mandates (11%) and investment trusts (3%).

CLIG: City of London Investment Group invests primarily in closed-end funds (equity, fixed income and alternatives). It’s London-based business has an institutional investor focus and a significant emerging markets investment focus (34% of AUM). It also has a US business (37% of AUM) which primarily has a HNW individual client base.

Pollen Street: Private markets specialist (equity: 62% of AUM; credit: 38% of AUM). AUM mainly sourced from investors in Europe ex-UK (34%), USA (31%), UK (19%), and Middle East and Asia (16%). It’s £6.1bn of AUM includes c. £0.5bn of on-balance-sheet investments. Sector focus in payments, wealth, insurance, tech-enabled services, and lending.

River Global: Focussed on acquiring asset and wealth management businesses. Asset management businesses held in separate A-shares. Stake in wealth management platform Parmenion is held in B-shares.

Mercia: Venture capital, development finance (mostly SME loans) and property finance to mostly regional (ex-London) UK businesses, investing between £100k and £20m. It manages c£1.8bn of funds for third parties and invests alongside them with c. £130m of on balance sheet investments. It intends to increase focus on third party fund management and divest from most of its on-balance-sheet investments.

Wealth management segment:

St James’s Place: Advice-led wealth manager with ‘partner’ adviser model (tied to SJP). It has around 4,900 advisers. AUM primarily in mass-affluent space (78% of AUM in £100k-£2m assets-per-client range). Ambitions to push further into HNW segment (£2m-£10m) which currently makes up around 15% of AUM and ultra-HNW (>£10m), which makes up around 7% of AUM.

Quilter: Advice-led wealth manager in 1) Affluent segment with £50k-£250k to invest (c. 73% of AUM: sourced via restricted/tied advisers and third-party IFAs using Quilter platform) and 2) HNW segment with >£250k to invest (c. 26% of AUM: sourced via restricted/tied advisers and IFAs). Also runs investment solutions (discretionary fund management and portfolio services).

AJ Bell: Adviser platform and D2C platform (61% and 32% of AUA respectively). Adviser platform is 4th largest in UK after Quilter, Aberdeen, and Transact. D2C platform also 4th largest after HL, Interactive Investor and Fidelity. Also has non-platform AJ Bell Investments business making up 6% of AUA.

IntegraFin: Holding company of adviser platform Transact (technology and investment platform), which is the 3rd largest adviser platform in the UK (after Quilter and Aberdeen).

Tatton: Serves smaller, UK-based Independent Financial Advisers via two business units: Tatton Investment Management - discretionary fund management (c87% of group revenue), and Paradigm - regulatory and compliance consulting and outsourcing, plus mortgage and protection insurance aggregation (c13% of group revenue).

Brooks Macdonald: Provides investment management services for financial advisers and private clients in the UK and financial advice services directly to private clients.

PensionBee: High-growth, earlier-stage business, IPO’d in 2021. D2C model giving customers the ability to switch and consolidate ‘legacy’ pension pots (typically from previous jobs). Focus on UK market to date but recently launched in US also.

What to expect from this newsletter

Future posts will include commentary on the most important issues for shareholders:

• individual company financial results;

• quarterly, half-yearly, and annual comparisons of assets-under-management movements to tease out who’s winning and who’s losing;

• macro-trends of where capital is moving from and to, and which asset managers benefit or lose from these trends;

• strategic sector analysis; and

• thoughts on opportunities and threats.

Lastly, I’m always open to suggestions and feedback - what you liked, what you didn’t like, what you’d like to see in future posts.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder in a number of the companies mentioned in this publication, and covered Impax Asset Management, Polar Capital, Mercia Asset Management, and Tatton Asset Management, as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on these companies by clicking on each. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

TheInvestors.blog is not investment advice. Please read the disclaimer here.

Mercia released interim results for its FY26 on 2 Dec 25. My Equity Development research note covering the results is out. You can read the full note here.

Some highlights:

• H1-26 (to 30 Sep 25) saw EBITDA jump 14% y-o-y to £4.2m and EBITDA margin up from 20.8% to 24.6%.

• AUM was marginally up at £2.0bn. Capital raises and new mandates added +£52m, offset by distributions of -£56m: mostly dividends to VCT shareholders and returns of capital by funds in their realisation phase. Valuation moves added +£16m. There were no redemptions. Post period-end, £38m was raised by Northern VCTs and the North East Accelerate Fund launched with £35m of FUM.

• The capital raising pipeline is very strong at £880m. Source-of-funds diversification is on track with £550m of the pipeline from institutional investors, £200m from the public sector, and £130m from retail investors. Mercia looks on track to meet our short- and medium-term forecasts, which are unchanged, and we expect AUM to ratchet up towards Mercia’s target of £3.0bn over the next few years.

• Mercia’s net cash of £34m equates to 9p per share (27% of market cap).

• We value its fee-earning fund management business at 18p per share (10x EBITDA).

• The NAV of its direct investments’ portfolio is £131m or 31p per share (>100% of market cap).

That’s a sum-of-the-parts value of 58p per share, almost double the share price. Clearly, the portfolio is being deeply discounted by investors, yet Mercia has a proven track record of exiting at a premium to NAV. Its strategy is to sell c. 70% of the portfolio over the next few years, so it won’t take long to see if the market is being grossly over-conservative.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder in Mercia Asset Management and covered it as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on Mercia here. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

TheInvestors.blog is not investment advice. Please read the disclaimer here.

My Equity Development research note covering Tatton Asset Management’s H1-26 is out.

• You can read the full note here.

• You can see the management presentation and Q&A with investors here.

And here is the summary of my note:

After its Oct 25 trading update, we knew Tatton had maintained its exceptional growth momentum; Assets-Under-Management/ Influence (AUI) were up 18% over H1-26, and net flows remained strong at £281m/ month, above Tatton’s guidance for FY26 of £200-£250m/ month. In the post-results period, AUI growth has continued, up another 5% to £27.1bn on 14 Nov 25. YTD net flows have increased from £1.68bn over H1 to £2.07bn.

With more recent peer data becoming available, we now also know H1 growth and flows were far higher than all peers. And we know H1 growth has translated to an exceptionally strong set of financial results with revenue, profits and net cash all sharply up. Compared to peers, and especially given the macro environment, it is a truly impressive performance.

The balance sheet remains strong with no debt and net cash up 6% over H1 to £34.1m (after paying the final FY25 dividend of £5.7m). An interim dividend of 12.0p is proposed (+26%; H1-25: 9.5p).

We highlight that even after fully acknowledging current macro-economic headwinds and UK budget uncertainty, management’s outlook is strong. Near-term, Tatton has “confidence in delivering results in line with market expectations”. Longer-term, Tatton has “confidence in achieving the £30 billion AUM/I target by FY29”. We note Tatton is ahead of trajectory to deliver on that goal.

Given current momentum, our FY26 forecasts probably look conservative. However, markets are volatile, and we err on the side of caution, maintaining our forecasts and fundamental value of 750p per share.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant covered Tatton Asset Management as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on Tatton here. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.

TheInvestors.blog is not investment advice. Please read the disclaimer here.

My Equity Development research note covering Polar Capital’s H1-26 is out. Read the full note here.

Key to understanding Polar’s prospects…

1. In the short term, is this chart. It shows Polar going into H2-26 at a far higher AUM level than last year. Absent a sharp fall in AUM during H2, it is likely to see a jump in average AUM over H2 which is its primary driver of revenue. That should also drive strong results in FY26 (ending 31 Mar 26) over FY25.

2. Over the longer-term, is this chart, which shows how its investment teams mostly outperform benchmark indexes, especially over the long term. That in turn should attract client capital. I was especially impressed by the technology team’s outperformance in the short term. Strong returns from the 'mag-7’ have had a huge influence on tech index returns. But Polar has comfortably outperformed benchmark indexes. That means its technology teams are uncovering highly attractive tech investment opportunities outside the mag-7. That’s why active managers exist.

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Disclosure: At the time of writing, Paul Bryant was a shareholder in a Polar Capital and covered Polar Capital as an analyst on behalf of Equity Development Limited. Read Equity Development’s research on Polar here. And please read this link for the terms and conditions of reading Equity Development’s research.