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The Quiet Owl's avatar

Asset managers are a rare sector where the leading indicator is published monthly and everyone still argues about it: flows. Your split of the problem, 74 percent of the equity outflows coming from international equities, is the useful part, because it separates a franchise problem from a style headwind. Mid and small cap strategies lagging while the market narrows to a handful of large names is survivable; the test is whether the fixed income growth arrives before the equity clients' patience runs out. The valuation follow-up will be the interesting half, since shrinking AUM bases tend to be priced on next year's flows rather than this year's earnings.

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